What Does the Interest Rate Hike Mean to Us?

by Chuck Roper 17. March 2017 11:29

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced raising the Federal Funds rate (the rate which banks lend money to other banks for overnight borrowing) by one quarter percentage point.   Historically, an interest rate hike sends Realtors into an emotional frenzy.  This time, however, I have heard very little push back and I think this is why: 

1.       We all anticipated the rate hike.  Generally, we don’t like surprises, so it just confirmed what we already thought.

2.       We are happy the economy is performing better; unemployment is under 5% (4.7% in February); 200,000 jobs are being added per month; and the stock market is at record levels (actually closing higher on Wednesday).

3.       Mortgage rates remain historically low.  After the announcement, the 30-year rate rose from 4.21% to 4.30%.  If you’re like me and purchased your first home with a 12% mortgage, this still seems like a pretty good deal. 

4.       Real estate sales are gaining steam.  In our market area, 65 homes went under contract from Wednesday to Friday.  71 homes are pending, which means they are scheduled to close. 

As Realtors, we can’t predict the future.  But for now, we are seeing positive economic signs, confidence and optimism.  I’ll take that any day!

 

Janet Horlacher

 

Principal, Janet McAfee  

In Like A Lion!

by Chuck Roper 6. March 2017 07:33

 

“In Like a Lion”

 

The St. Louis Spring selling market is early and robust.   Consumer optimism, a record stock market, spring-like weather and favorable interest rates have all aligned to create this early surge.  Listings which expired in 2016 have re-activated and have already received offers.   We are seeing declining days on market, favorable pricing and competitive bidding.    The tail wind going into our Spring market is vigorous. 

Here is a snapshot of 2017 versus last year:

·         Closed sales up +2.6%

·         Average sold price up +3.6%

·         Number of sales up +3.6%

·         Average days on market down -20.5%

·         Number of Active listings DOWN -10.2%

What can we expect going forward?

All indicators suggest we are poised for a strong Spring market, provided we fill the listing pipeline.  The number of active listings is on a multi-year decline not only in St. Louis, but around the country.  We need to reverse this slide in order to satisfy buyer demand and prevent buyer fatigue.  The risk when there are not enough relevant properties to satisfy demand or buyers repeatedly lose out in competitive bidding, is that buyers get discouraged and opt out completely. 

Another trend we are watching is Millennial home purchasing (or lack of home purchasing).  This generation, now approaching their 20’s through mid-30’s has surpassed their parents as the largest demographic.  Unlike their Baby Boomer parents, who purchased their first home in their 20’s, this generation is delaying home ownership.  This generation graduated from college with the highest level of student debt in history and the most difficult job market.  Today, the “30 something” Millennials are gaining financial security and entering the market.  Going forward, I believe Millennial housing preferences and purchase cycle will be the most significant drivers in residential real estate.  

Janet

Principal, Janet McAfee Inc.

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